It could be said that the local elections were a harbinger of things to come in next month’s general election, and it’s fairly easy to see why. The Conservatives have made significant gains in local council seats, while Labour have suffered significantly. However, I doubt that the elections have been any worse for anyone than they have been for the UK Independence Party, having lost all but a single council seat.
Many were quick to declare the death of UKIP, and now even Nigel Farage, the former leader of the party, has little hope of the party lasting longer than two years. In all fairness, they’re right. The whole point of UKIP was to achieve Britain’s emancipation from the European Union, and thanks to last year’s historic referendum, that goal will be achieved, rendering UKIP obsolete as a party (though there are still a small amount of loyal supporters willing to vote for them).
I sort of expected this to happen, and I thought that they might steal Labour seats from the north in the next election. What I should have expected was that the UKIP would lose seats to the Tories, but now that that’s the case, it’s likely that UKIP has absolutely no chance in the upcoming election, and they probably won’t even have a single seat, and probably won’t even reclaim the seat Douglas Carswell gave up. In other words, UKIP’s fate is sealed.
So to the people who think UKIP are “fascists” or “Nazis”, don’t worry. UKIP aren’t a threat. In fact, if you’re a Remainer you should be happy that Brexit is even happening, because the success of Brexit will kill UKIP as a party, so if you want UKIP gone, you want Brexit to work. Besides, UKIP is probably decaying its own thanks to years of political infighting, and the ineptitude of its leader Paul Nuttall. At this rate, if they don’t disband within the next two years, then they’ll pretty much become the equivalent of America’s Constitution Party, a fringe right-wing party that never makes any electoral gains (at least no significant gains anyway), and has no influence on the political landscape in any significant way.
That is the future for UKIP, but I think the people in UKIP are already aware of that. I’d suggest rebranding the party but I think it’s too late. Paul Nuttall did consider rebranding the party for the next general election, but now that we have a snap election, he’s got no time to rebrand, and had shelved the idea. I very much doubt that there’s anything that will save UKIP’s fortunes, whether the party rebrands or not. I suppose it wouldn’t make much of a difference with Farage still leading the party.
They may yet be gone in a few years, but at the very least they will be remembered for exerting the amount of pressure on the government necessary for accomplishing the goal that they had set out to do – triggering an EU membership referendum which successfully results in a UK withdrawal. Of course, they will be forever reviled by what remains of the globalist, Marxist left in the future, but I believe that history will remember them in a positive light, if mainly because the Brexiteers will become the new establishment (with Theresa May embracing hard Brexit, that is already happening). However, I doubt that UKIP will get much credit. After all, history is written by the winners.